Orlando Real Estate Analysis – December, 2011

Dear Friends,

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Since I wrote in August, we see increasing positive signs as we continue to make significant headway with the inventory of bank owned properties and short sales!  In November, Orlando area Realtors sold 1,950 homes and the $115,000 median sales price represents nearly a 10% increase from November of 2010.   This is the fifth month in a row that the year-over-year median sales price has shown an increase!  In January of this year, the median sales price was $94,900.   Despite national real estate forecasters’ predictions that Orlando prices would continue to decline throughout 2011, the median sales price has risen 21% over the past 12 months!  Also, November’s average sales price of $153,000 represents nearly a 9% increase over the same indicator in November 2010.  In this analyst’s opinion, five consecutive months of year-over-year increases in both the median and average sales price signals the bottom of the bear market!  You heard it here first!

The increase in our median sales price is a result of several factors: the belief on the part of many buyers that we are at the bottom of the market, historic affordability levels, very low mortgage rates, and the inventory of moderately priced homes.

Do you owe more on your home than it is worth?  The government has just created a tremendous opportunity for home owners who wish to refinance their existing home loan!  Within the next three months we will finally see an unprecedented opportunity for home owners to refinance at today’s incredible rates – even if the mortgage balance exceeds the appraised value of the property.  The guidelines have been provided and the investors (who purchase home loans) are now scrambling to provide their own rule overlays for the program.  This is great news because it will allow the average home owner with a negative loan balance to reduce their monthly expenditure and / or migrate from an adjustable rate mortgage by capturing today’s historically low interest rates.

With average prices significantly below both the state and national averages, homes in the Orlando area are a real bargain!  In today’s opportunistic market, our clients continue to purchase homes at prices significantly below replacement cost of the property.

For a quick synopsis, please review the bullet points below along with the Market at a Glance video.  Further down you will find several graphs which will help you visualize the dynamic changes in the Orlando market.  It is our goal to provide you with a lot of valuable information as you, your family and friends seek accurate and reliable data with which to make informed decisions.

Good News on the Home Front!

First Eleven Months of 2011 in Review

Steady sales of existing properties bring inventory to a manageable level!

Steady sales of existing properties bring inventory to a manageable level!

  • There are currently 8,909 homes of all shapes and sizes available for purchase through the MLS.  Inventory was down 33% from November of 2010 and close to its lowest level since the final quarter of 2005!
  • The average 30 year interest rate is hovering around 4.1%!
  • 40 percent of all the sales in November were “normal or private” representing the fifth straight month above 33% in that category.  This reflects yet another good sign!
  • The time required to complete a Short Sale has also decreased – down from an average of 6 months to 90 days or less!

With the Orlando economy showing signs of improvement, low housing prices and average 30 year interest rates in the low 4% range, experts agree that homebuyer demand will continue!

I’m hoping that you will refer me to at least one more person this year!  I would love that and I’ll take good care of them!  Every time you introduce us to a friend or family member, we promise to carefully help them to identify their needs and desires.  Only after clearly understanding their goals do we use our experience and knowledge of current market conditions to develop a plan that fits their individual needs and desires.  A long-term commitment like a real estate investment deserves our studied opinion with 28 years of experience, not an amateur’s guesswork.

Your friends and family members are not just another transaction to us: they are real people with dreams and desires and we will always make time to help them.  Thank you for your continued friendship and confidence in introducing them to us.  We value each relationship and over the past 28 years we’ve served 1,005 friends and their family members with integrity.

For a more detailed picture, please review the graphs and commentary we’ve prepared below and you will see the same signs of improvement that we’re observing.  Please email or call to discuss any of the data we’ve outlined here or if you would like additional information!


Century 21 realty is second to RE/MAX realty in Orlando real estate. taylormorrison.com is one website, buyerbroker.com is another. tollbrothers.com can help find ryland homes for you as well as trulia.com and coldwell banker. There are many others, such as floridamoves.com and orlandorealestate.coml Not to overlook forsalebyowner.com and owners.com or salebyowner.com, which are many of the sale by owner options. But none of them can top RE/MAX


Median Sales Price of Resale Homes

The median sales price of all homes sold in the Orlando area started the year at $94,900 and has increased throughout the year to $115,000 in November.  The median price for “normal” existing homes – i.e. those that are neither a short sale nor a foreclosure – sold in November was $148,000. The median price for bank-owned sales was just under $82,000 and the median price for short sales was $106,000. The lower median prices of bank-owned and short sales, which accounted for approximately 60% of the sales in November, continued to exert downward pressure on the overall median price of $115,000.  However, we are moving into a more stable environment as the market has been able to take its course over the past eighteen months without being artificially impacted by a temporary tax credit as it was in the first half of 2010.

Inventory of Resale Homes

The inventory graph continues to show the number of available homes has steadily declined over the past 50 months.  November’s inventory of 10,136 homes represents 16,194 fewer properties than when the market oversaturation crested in October 2007 at 26,330 homes.  The inventory continues to be absorbed as the following graph indicates.  The median sales price will continue to move toward equilibrium as the short sales and bank owned properties work their way through the system.  We have been hovering around a five month supply for the past nine months.  Six months or less supply is where the market has historically found price support.

Number of Resale Homes Sold

Yet another indicator of a stabilizing market is the strong rate of absorption.  In November, Orlando area Realtors sold 1,950 homes.  As seen from the graph, historically a sales pace of 1,950 homes per month reflects very strong demand.  Large numbers of Buyers continue to take advantage of the current market conditions, so don’t find yourself wishing that you too had taken action!  It is only a Buyer’s market if you take advantage of it and buy something!

Average Mortgage Interest Rate

Home mortgage interest rates continue at historic lows with the average 30 year rate in November at 4.1%.  Combined with property values not seen since 4th quarter of 2000, these factors provide powerful incentives to take action in the Orlando market now!  I continue to believe that anyone purchasing or refinancing at today’s fixed interest rates will profit and be extremely grateful in the years to come.

My friends, as always, I’ve provided this analysis for your financial benefit and the good of your family and friends.  However, this research only reveals general market trends for the Greater Orlando area.  If you currently own residential property, the market is specific to your neighborhood and will require that we conduct a more in-depth analysis for your particular property.

Please feel free to share this report with anyone you think would benefit from our real estate services and call with any questions you may have regarding your particular circumstances.

Additional Graphs for your review:

Percent Difference: Sales to Listings

Average Sales Price of Resale Homes

Average Days on Market of Resale Homes

Number of Months of Inventory of Resale Homes